Friday, March 17, 2017
View ShowroomAs a result of the proliferation of credit cards, there has been widespread speculation about the possibilities of a checkless, cashless society in the future. 33
While much of the chatter at the Money2020 conference in Las Vegas centred on schemes to eliminate hard cash, former Citibanker Jay Bhattacharya took a contrarian approach, brandishing a newspaper clipping from 1972 that confidently forecast the arrival of a cashless society by the end of the 1970s.
The yellowing clipping, headlined ‘Cashless Society Predicted by Credit Card Use,’ claimed cash and paper cheques would disappear with the mass adoption of credit cards and the unveiling of ATM machines at more than 5,300 banks owned by the Interbank Card Association. 34
The answer is simple: you do not carry any money on you and neither does anyone else. You pay for everything you buy with an identity card like a credit card. It has a magnetic strip containing your name and other personal information in the form of a magnetic code.
Many futurists agree that the next 10 to 20 years may see the beginning of a mostly cashless culture. “Smart cards,” or debit cards, are expected to become popular. In The Futurist, Mr. Cornish wrote that by 2025, cash may be popular only with “thieves, tax dodgers and paranoiacs.” 36
With electronic payments and various forms of digital money on the rise, the era of coins and bills could be nearing an end: ‘Cash, after millennia as one of mankind’s most versatile and enduring technologies, looks set over the next 15 years or so finally to melt away into an electronic stream of ones and zeros...’ 38
PAYING WITH CASH: A MULTI-COUNTRY ANALYSIS OF THE PAST AND FUTURE OF THE USE OF CASH FOR PAYMENTS BY CONSUMERS
Abstract: This paper focuses on the value of consumer payments made with cash, which we refer to as “total cash spending”, and the share of total spending that is made with cash, which we refer to as the “cash-spending share”. We provide estimates of these measures of cash use for 2000-2011 and forecasts of these measures of cash use for 2012-2022 for ten diverse countries: France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
We summarize the results across these countries using GDP-weighted compound annual growth rates. We estimate that total real cash spending increased by 2.4 percent annually between 2000 and 2011 and forecast that this growth will decline to a 0.9 percent increase annually between 2012 and 2022. We also show that the cash-spending share increased by 1.6 percent annually between 2000 and 2011 but will likely decline by 1.5 percent annually between 2012 and 2022.
We find that total cash spending will increase between 2012 and 2022, despite the decline in the cash-spending share, because total spending will increase over this period. There is great diversity in the details across countries in the historical and future evolution of cash use by consumers. However, our key finding is that, contrary to popular reports, cash is not dying. In most countries total cash spending will continue to increase, although at a slower rate than historically, and the share of spending with cash will decline but at a modest rate. 45
CONCLUSIONS
There will always be a need for cash in some form. In places where infrastructures do not exist, or have been compromised, its portability and stored value can mean that cash is the only way to pay. Cash in some form is here to stay, whether we like it or not.
PAYMENTS INNOVATION NOT KILLING CASH
In spite of the many payments innovations coming to market around the world, and efforts on the part of many, including banks and card networks, to shift consumers away from cash, a new study released today by Market Platform Dynamics (MPD) shows that the total use of cash is increasing in many developed and developing countries. The study findings were the subject of a keynote presentation made by MPD CEO Karen Webster at the ESTA World Congress and Convening in Marseilles, France. The study findings conclude that although payments innovation will eventually impact the consumers’ use of cash, significant impacts will take at least a decade to be felt.
The study was sponsored by Loomis AB, one of the world’s leading cash processing and delivery organizations in an effort to understand the impact between cash usage by consumers and the payment innovations coming to market.
“Cash isn’t going to die – or not at least any time soon, in spite of the explosive growth of electronic payments, in spite of the bulls eye that it has on its back from players who want to see it dead and buried, and in spite of the convincing narrative that electronic payments pundits deliver, “ remarked Webster during her presentation. “Pundits have been predicting the death of cash for as long as the plastic card has been in existence – more than 60 years now but the existing ways of measuring cash tell us nothing about how consumers actually use it. We’ve developed a new methodology that provides a much more accurate understanding how much cash is used by consumers to pay for things at merchants in different countries over time.”
Lars Blecko, ESTA Conference Chair and CEO of Loomis AB stated that “it’s easy to lose perspective about the relevance of cash in society given the wave of news reports on payments innovation. The ability to have a more robust methodology for understanding how much cash is really used by consumers to pay for things at merchants is extraordinarily valuable and why we felt very strongly that this piece of work be done for the benefit of the entire cash ecosystem. It turns perceptions about cash into a set of tangible and actionable metrics that help the industry understand how cash will evolve alongside mobile and the other payments innovation that will certainly come our way over the years.” 47